Malaysia: Indian Unrest and Early Elections
November 27, 2007 23 59 GMT
Summary
About 10,000 ethnic Indians took to the streets of Kuala Lumpur on Nov. 25 in the second demonstration allowed inside the Malaysian capital in a month. These demonstrations signal more chaos and unpredictability to come before elections are announced. While businesses may experience temporary impacts, the government is not about to lose its grip on security in the city any time soon.
Analysis
In Kuala Lumpur's second demonstration in a month, about 10,000 ethnic Indians marched in the Malaysian capital's streets Nov. 25.
While instability can be expected in Kuala Lumpur in the run-up to national elections, and business may experience short-term negative effects, the Malaysian government is not likely to lose control of the situation.
The Nov. 25 protest initially was organized to draw attention to a $4 trillion lawsuit being launched in London by a Malaysian rights group known as the Hindu Rights Action Force. The lawsuit demands compensation from the United Kingdom for transporting Indians to Malaysia to exploit the labor during the colonial era.
The protests did not take the Malaysian government by surprise -- it arrested three ethnic Indian leaders before the marches and released them afterward. Notably, ethnic Indian protesters have organized along racial lines as opposed to uniting behind a nonrace-based issue (such as electoral fraud). Even more significantly, opposition groups in Malaysia are portraying these race-based riots as a milestone in the country's political evolution, a sign of the looming ethnic crisis facing the coalition government of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
Unpredictability has grown in Malaysian politics ever since former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad stepped down in 2003. For more than a decade, Chinese and other minorities have bristled at the official government discrimination known as the Bumiputra policy, which favors ethnic Malays at the expense of non-Malays. Ethnic Malays make up more than 65 percent of the population, followed by ethnic Chinese, who make up 26 percent and ethnic Indians, who make up approximately 8 percent.
The Malay government established the flagship of pro-Bumiputra policies -- the New Economic Policy -- in 1970, in the aftermath of bloody riots between the majority Malays and the economically better-off minority Chinese. Mahathir needed to get a grip on rising social unrest, so he made the transfer of assets to ethnic Malays the centerpiece of his domestic policies as well. Establishing new business without some ethnic Malay ownership became illegal. Inefficiency resulted.
The policy has since become deadweight around Malaysia's neck in its bid to become more regionally competitive as a foreign investment destination. The government recognizes this, but its hands remain tied, since the bulk of the population would rise up if its subsidies were cut. Much talk about rejuvenating the Malaysian economy by freeing it of the restraints imposed by the pro-Bumiputra policies -- such as the Multimedia Super Corridor Plan -- has occurred, but little real action over the scrapping of these rules has ensued. Upcoming elections are reinforcing the cycle of talk without action.
Badawi is not bound by law to announce new elections until 2009, but he has kept alive the possibility that early elections will be called. Speculation that he could call snap elections has gone on for most of 2007, but little has come of it. If something eventually does, Badawi will time the election for when public support for the opposition is at its weakest and internal cohesion in his government at its strongest.
Recent scandals have demonstrated his ability to ride out episodes that threaten to undermine the legitimacy of the ruling National Front government. All that opposition groups can do for now is grasp at any event or issue that can be used to highlight weaknesses inside the government. Indian riots are one such issue. Opposition factions -- such as Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Keadilan party -- are using these riots to bolster their case against other government policies, such as the internal security act.
The recent demonstrations signal chaos and unpredictability to come before elections are announced, but Badawi's grip on internal security is not going to loosen any time soon. Badawi will continue to talk about phasing out pro-Bumiputra policies, but nothing significant is achievable before elections happen -- be they in 2009 or before.
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