The land was once fertile, food and fresh water were plentiful and there were reliable sources of energy. But people took these things for granted and thought they would last for ever, and they were wrong. Now food and water are scarce, and there is widespread drought and famine. Supplies of oil and other natural resources are dwindling fast, and countries have been forced to develop nuclear weapons in order to protect what little they have. Conflict has become a way of life.
This may sound like the scenario from a Hollywood blockbuster, but according to a recent report investigating the impact of climate change, it could really happen, and in the not too distant future. Environmentalists have long been warning us about the dangers of global warming, and now it appears that even the Pentagon is getting worried. Their report states that rapid climate change would create "global chaos", and that a global environmental catastrophe is "plausible". As soon as 2020, it is claimed, we could see "climate wars" caused by catastrophic shortages of water and energy supplies.
Are such dire warnings really as far-fetched as they seem? Perhaps not, as there is evidence already that the pace of climate change is accelerating.
In Alaska, wintertime temperatures have risen by an average of 6°C. "This is an absolutely enormous signal," says Gunter Weller from the University of Alaska, "bigger than anything the computer models have predicted." In the past, winter temperatures would hover around -40°C for months, while recently they have reached only -30°C, and only stayed that low for a few days.
As a result of this temperature rise the layer just under the surface of the ground, which has been frozen for thousands of years (the permafrost), is now beginning to thaw, causing roads to crack open and buildings to collapse in Alaskan towns. Elsewhere in the region, whole sections of coastline are falling into the sea as ice begins to melt. Latest predictions are that the ice in the Arctic Circle will disappear forever within the next hundred years, leaving open water at the top of the earth.
Meanwhile, in the southern hemisphere, one of the seven natural wonders of the world is at risk. The Great Barrier Reef is one of Australia’s top tourist attractions, but it may not be for much longer. The world’s seas are getting warmer, and this is slowly killing the beautiful coral that people come to see on the Reef. In fact, experts are now predicting that 95% of the coral will be dead by the year 2050. A recent report on the future of the coral said, "Reefs will not disappear, but they will be devoid of coral. There is little to no evidence that corals can adapt fast enough." Marine scientists predict a rise in temperatures of up to 6°C, while increases of just 1°C are enough to bleach or even kill coral.
Change is even taking place in Britain, where February 2004 was one of the mildest ever. In Scotland, the winter sports industry is suffering. Two out of five of the Scottish ski resorts are now up for sale, their owners unable to sustain the heavy financial losses caused by the lack of snow in recent years. Is “winter” becoming a thing of the past? Dr David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, says that global warming may not all be bad news for Scotland. "As Scotland has better summers and the Mediterranean gets too hot, the Scottish tourism industry should benefit in the summer months."